The Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM

Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-02-23; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-07.

• thechadisgreat estimated 100% on 2010-02-23
• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-07-31
• gwern said “he’s still not PM, so I’m going to go with the literal date and close this as correct even though ‘never’ has yet to pass” on 2011-05-10
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-05-10.
• mad   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-07.
• mad said “Just found this prediction. He’s PM, so I guess I should update this. ” on 2015-01-07