The Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM
- thechadisgreat estimated 100% on 2010-02-23
- gwern estimated 50% on 2010-07-31
- gwern said “he’s still not PM, so I’m going to go with the literal date and close this as correct even though ‘never’ has yet to pass” on 2011-05-10
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2011-05-10.
- mad judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-07.
- mad said “Just found this prediction. He’s PM, so I guess I should update this. ” on 2015-01-07
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