Jeb! to be voted President of the United States. Republicans Rule House and Senate as they currently do already!

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-06-19; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.

• Raahul_Kumar estimated 80% on 2015-06-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Raahul, this claim seems so unlikely to me, and you seem so overconfident, that I’m curious if you’d be willing to stake a wager on it. Say you get $25 if it happens and I you pay $25 if it doesn’t? ” on 2015-06-20
• Madplatypus estimated 25% and said ““Do already” is fairly spurious evidence. The Bush legacy will likely hamper Jeb all the way through the race.” on 2015-06-27
• David estimated 15% on 2015-06-27
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 80% and said “Josh, on what site precisely? You are aware that the United States has strong gambling prohibitions right?And are you willing to take the bet on Jeb being the only republican going through?As well as the win in 2016?” on 2015-06-28
• JoshuaZ said “Raahul, just an agreement is fine. Most people are reliable. Individual bets in the US are legal in the US. Running a business or the like would be illegal ” on 2015-06-28
• RobertLumley estimated 6% on 2015-07-01
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 90% and said “If I win, can you pay me the equivalent of 25 USD in Renminbi instead? I will use Western Union to pay you if I lose in USD only.” on 2015-07-02
• JoshuaZ said “Sounds like a deal to me. ” on 2015-07-02
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “Prediction Markets: Jeb Has Best Chance of Winning Nominationhttps://www.newsmax.com/Politics/prediction-markets-jeb-bush-predictwise-nomination/2015/06/16/id/650719/” on 2015-07-04
• gwern said “They gave it 31% – ie it was more likely to not happen. 0.31 * 0.5 * 0.5 << 100%!” on 2016-02-21
• jesselevine   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-21.