Peter Garret will split from Labour to form another political party within the next six months.
- d403 estimated 98% on 2010-02-28
- gwern estimated 5% on 2010-07-30
- gwern said “Wikipedia doesn’t mention anything about him resigning as minister of whatever, so I’m marking this one wrong.” on 2010-09-01
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-01.
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