PredictionBook is now read-only (

Peter Garret will split from Labour to form another political party within the next six months.

Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.

  • d403 estimated 98% on 2010-02-28
  • gwern estimated 5% on 2010-07-30
  • gwern said “Wikipedia doesn’t mention anything about him resigning as minister of whatever, so I’m marking this one wrong.on 2010-09-01
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-01.