If Australia win the Ashes back, Ricky ponting will retire from all forms of the game.

Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2011-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-09.

• d403 estimated 89% on 2010-02-28
• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-07-31
• gwern estimated 70% and said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ashes says England won the ashes, so no opportunity for it to be tested and marking right” on 2011-02-09
• gwern said “(fixing my prediction since I’ve changed my interpretation of these conditional predictions)” on 2011-02-09
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-02-09.