The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union.

Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.

• sdr estimated 80% on 2015-06-27
• sdr said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union” on 2015-06-27
• Madplatypus estimated 70% and said “Business interests within the UK are general solidly opposed to the idea, and in the run up to the referendum will bring their influence to bear in full. ” on 2015-06-27
• gwern estimated 70% on 2015-06-27
• David estimated 70% on 2015-06-27
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 45% and said “The European Union hasn’t agreed to the UK’s demands. The possibility of the UK’s bluff being called is something their leaders haven’t thought of. ” on 2015-06-28
• kuudes estimated 70% and said “Poll data on Wikipedia seems currently point toward such odds being reasonable. I hope it will get higher. It is hard for me to account for the possibility of there being suddenly no vote.” on 2015-07-05
• danohu estimated 60% on 2015-08-08
• sflicht estimated 75% on 2015-08-25
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “New poll shows UK would vote to leave EUhttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/new-poll-shows-uk-would-vote-to-leave-eu/articleshow/48845929.cms” on 2015-09-09
• Raahul_Kumar said “I’ll note that I am the only commenter to get it right, everyone else thought the UK would be part of the EU. I’ve been consistently negative in the face of everyone else’s brainless optimism.” on 2015-09-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-09-10
• danielfilan estimated 70% on 2015-09-11
• Josh Holland estimated 75% on 2015-09-25
• luxpir estimated 60% and said “In light of recent political turbulence in the UK, the climate for change is set. There’s enough will for both to happen, but as Madplatypus says, business has influence. Money talks.” on 2015-09-29
• qznc estimated 60% on 2015-11-25
• Raahul_Kumar said “Denmark votes no, it’s all over for the EU.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/denmark/12032958/Denmarks-EU-referendum-is-a-blow-to-David-Cameron.html” on 2015-12-07
• Raahul_Kumar said “52% in favour of leaving for the first time.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-majority-of-public-now-wants-a-brexit-poll-reveals-a6745561.html” on 2015-12-13
• equivrel estimated 70% on 2016-02-14
• Raahul_Kumar said “Majority want to leave since 28 Jan this year.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016” on 2016-02-14
• Temeraire estimated 65% on 2016-02-22
• Waring estimated 65% on 2016-02-22
• jesselevine estimated 51% on 2016-02-23
• kuudes said “http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result for base rates” on 2016-02-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 52% on 2016-02-23
• artir estimated 52% on 2016-03-13
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 40% on 2016-04-29
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 60% on 2016-04-29
• mbohler62 estimated 5% on 2016-04-30
• sflicht estimated 60% on 2016-04-30
• sflicht estimated 70% on 2016-04-30
• two2thehead estimated 70% and said “Would be 80 but I’ve gotten out of practice at reading British tea leaves.” on 2016-04-30
• Jenson estimated 80% on 2016-04-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2016-04-30
• jesselevine estimated 99% on 2016-05-01
• Peteris estimated 90% and said “After the terms of UK membership were re-negotiated, most influential parties are in favor of remaining in the European Union. Benefits of leaving are unclear, uncertain and difficult to communicate to the public.” on 2016-05-02
• Sedols estimated 60% and said “Brits hate the EU but not all of them are that crazy.” on 2016-05-02
• Pupu estimated 65% on 2016-05-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 68% on 2016-05-11
• Ben Doherty estimated 80% on 2016-05-20
• Rowan93 estimated 70% on 2016-05-21
• ejlflop estimated 55% on 2016-05-21
• splorridge estimated 60% on 2016-05-25
• Ken estimated 70% on 2016-05-26
• themusicgod1 estimated 57% on 2016-06-23
• Afforess estimated 10% on 2016-06-24
• themusicgod1 said “I think Raahul_Kumar gets the ‘told you so’ award on this one. The Beeb is calling it for Brexit” on 2016-06-24
• ejlflop   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-24.