When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 50% accuracy for the 100% category

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21.

  • btrettel estimated 50% on 2015-07-07
  • btrettel said “Not meant to be a hostile prediction. Estimating other people’s overconfidence can be useful. I’m not sure if Raahul_Kumar will figure out he’s (very likely) overconfident in time or something else.on 2015-07-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2015-07-07
  • JoshuaZ said “Interesting type of prediction. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/119475 for slightly larger range. on 2015-07-07
  • EloiseRosen estimated 40% on 2015-07-09
  • EloiseRosen estimated 40% on 2015-07-09
  • btrettel estimated 60% and said “Hmm… my math might be misleading. Hard to predict if Raahul_Kumar has a bunch of private goals which may influence this, or whether he’ll have a change of heart for many predictions.on 2015-07-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 29% on 2015-11-01
  • EloiseRosen estimated 20% and said “Updating. We’re currently at 12 100% confidence predictions with an accuracy of 67%.on 2015-11-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2015-11-12
  • danielfilan estimated 20% and said “I’m seeing 12 100% confidence predictions with accuracy 75%.on 2015-11-13
  • EloiseRosen said “danielfilan: That’s odd. One of the 100% confidence predictions must have gone from being marked unknown/incorrect to correct in the last day.on 2015-11-13
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 18% on 2016-01-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “I just checked: his accuracy is currently 79% with 68 predictions. on 2016-01-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-21.

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