Predictionbook's overall confidence will remain within 5% of accuracy in buckets 50-90 by 2016.

Created by sdr on 2015-07-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.

  • sdr estimated 60% on 2015-07-09
  • sdr said “Overall statistics, as measured here: http://predictionbook.com/predictions ; bucket range inclusive (50,60,70,80,90, but not 100).on 2015-07-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-07-09
  • btrettel estimated 85% and said “This one is interesting to think about. Made some approximations to get this number that I will want to improve upon later.on 2015-07-09
  • btrettel said “Verified as true. Currently: 47%, 57%, 66%, 76%, 86%, 93%on 2016-01-01
  • btrettel   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.

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