Predictionbook's overall confidence will remain within 5% of accuracy in buckets 50-90 by 2016.

Created by sdr on 2015-07-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.

• sdr estimated 60% on 2015-07-09
• sdr said “Overall statistics, as measured here: http://predictionbook.com/predictions ; bucket range inclusive (50,60,70,80,90, but not 100).” on 2015-07-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-07-09
• btrettel estimated 85% and said “This one is interesting to think about. Made some approximations to get this number that I will want to improve upon later.” on 2015-07-09
• btrettel said “Verified as true. Currently: 47%, 57%, 66%, 76%, 86%, 93%” on 2016-01-01
• btrettel   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.