PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31

  • InquilineKea estimated 50% on 2015-07-10
  • btrettel estimated 60% on 2015-07-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2015-07-10
  • Afforess estimated 99% and said “Silly not to go all in on this prediction. If I am wrong, no one will be around to remember!on 2015-07-10
  • gwern estimated 60% and said “5 years isn’t necessarily very long for something in maintenance mode. Hasn’t PB been around for ~6 now?on 2015-07-10
  • sdr estimated 75% and said “First snapshot @ 2009: https://web.archive.org/web/20090517213541/http://predictionbook.com/ ; zero maintenance, but personal reasons for TrikeApps’ founder to foot (low) bills; source available @ github, likely.on 2015-07-11
  • _W_ estimated 99% and said “Pascal’s wager!on 2015-07-19
  • David estimated 70% on 2015-07-19
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% and said “Am including the possibility of someone else hosting it in its ‘survival’.on 2015-09-03
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2015-10-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 68% on 2015-10-16
  • tymotm estimated 80% on 2015-10-20
  • qznc estimated 50% on 2015-11-25
  • JoshuaZ estimated 72% on 2015-11-25
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 70% and said “Because of distortions caused by Pascal’s wager. If I were honest, I’d estimate 45%.on 2015-11-27
  • ioannes estimated 70% on 2016-01-20
  • themusicgod1 estimated 51% on 2016-03-11
  • Medea estimated 80% on 2016-03-21
  • leo_gri estimated 70% on 2016-03-21
  • two2thehead said “…They really need to fix the errors in this box. Prediction book ate my comment and predictionon 2016-06-28
  • two2thehead estimated 99% and said “Lesswrong has a high median IQ. PB has overlap with LW. IQ is an imperfect predictor of persistence. Higher IQ has a predicts higher probability of persistence.Conclusion. Very likely.on 2016-06-28
  • two2thehead said “Source of IQ value: http://lesswrong.com/lw/lhg/2014_survey_results/ on 2016-06-28
  • davatk estimated 90% on 2018-04-26
  • pranomostro estimated 90% on 2018-12-08
  • Baeboo estimated 93% on 2018-12-12
  • telegrafista estimated 70% on 2019-02-14
  • amadeu estimated 93% on 2019-04-07
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 100% and said “Pascal’s wager. What was I thinking before, betting less than 100%…?on 2019-04-08
  • AlexLamson estimated 70% on 2019-04-16
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26
  • Baeboo estimated 96% on 2019-04-26
  • AlexLamson estimated 90% on 2019-05-20
  • qznc estimated 90% on 2020-04-15
  • Baeboo estimated 97% on 2020-04-15
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 100% on 2020-04-18
  • azatris estimated 99% on 2020-04-18
  • wizzwizz4 estimated 98% and said “I reckon around 1 in 40 of the smallish sites I use will go down by the end of the year, due to current events. Rounding up because this one’s been around for a while.on 2020-05-19
  • Baeboo estimated 98% on 2020-05-20
  • bomeor estimated 100% on 2020-06-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 98% on 2020-06-17
  • NickN estimated 100% on 2020-08-16

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