PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

• InquilineKea estimated 50% on 2015-07-10
• btrettel estimated 60% on 2015-07-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2015-07-10
• Afforess estimated 99% and said “Silly not to go all in on this prediction. If I am wrong, no one will be around to remember!” on 2015-07-10
• gwern estimated 60% and said “5 years isn’t necessarily very long for something in maintenance mode. Hasn’t PB been around for ~6 now?” on 2015-07-10
• sdr estimated 75% and said “First snapshot @ 2009: https://web.archive.org/web/20090517213541/http://predictionbook.com/ ; zero maintenance, but personal reasons for TrikeApps’ founder to foot (low) bills; source available @ github, likely.” on 2015-07-11
• _W_ estimated 99% and said “Pascal’s wager!” on 2015-07-19
• David estimated 70% on 2015-07-19
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% and said “Am including the possibility of someone else hosting it in its ‘survival’.” on 2015-09-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2015-10-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 68% on 2015-10-16
• tymotm estimated 80% on 2015-10-20
• qznc estimated 50% on 2015-11-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 72% on 2015-11-25
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% and said “Because of distortions caused by Pascal’s wager. If I were honest, I’d estimate 45%.” on 2015-11-27
• ioannes estimated 70% on 2016-01-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 51% on 2016-03-11
• Medea estimated 80% on 2016-03-21
• leo_gri estimated 70% on 2016-03-21
• two2thehead said “…They really need to fix the errors in this box. Prediction book ate my comment and prediction” on 2016-06-28
• two2thehead estimated 99% and said “Lesswrong has a high median IQ. PB has overlap with LW. IQ is an imperfect predictor of persistence. Higher IQ has a predicts higher probability of persistence.Conclusion. Very likely.” on 2016-06-28
• two2thehead said “Source of IQ value: http://lesswrong.com/lw/lhg/2014_survey_results/ ” on 2016-06-28
• davatk estimated 90% on 2018-04-26
• pranomostro estimated 90% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 93% on 2018-12-12
• telegrafista estimated 70% on 2019-02-14
• amadeu estimated 93% on 2019-04-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 100% and said “Pascal’s wager. What was I thinking before, betting less than 100%…?” on 2019-04-08
• AlexLamson estimated 70% on 2019-04-16
• deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26
• Baeboo estimated 96% on 2019-04-26
• AlexLamson estimated 90% on 2019-05-20
• qznc estimated 90% on 2020-04-15
• Baeboo estimated 97% on 2020-04-15
• PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2020-04-18
• azatris estimated 99% on 2020-04-18
• wizzwizz4 estimated 98% and said “I reckon around 1 in 40 of the smallish sites I use will go down by the end of the year, due to current events. Rounding up because this one’s been around for a while.” on 2020-05-19
• Baeboo estimated 98% on 2020-05-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2020-06-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 98% on 2020-06-17
• NickN estimated 100% on 2020-08-16
• Baeboo estimated 100% on 2020-11-20
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2021-01-01.