We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-03

• InquilineKea estimated 35% on 2015-07-15
• InquilineKea estimated 20% on 2015-07-15
• olivia estimated 15% and said “I’m not confident in the number or effectiveness of large scale population genetics programs. This seems like something definitely possible, but that’s a short timescale.” on 2015-07-15
• gwern said “underspecified. variance at which age? what kind of genes here, SNPs, de novo mutations, CNV, etc?” on 2015-07-16
• gwern said “for upper bounds on how much IQ variance can be explained by various kinds of methods and genetic info, see the visscher talk and graphs specifically in http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2015/05/peter-visscher-genomics-big-data.html” on 2015-07-16
• InquilineKea changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-01” and changed their prediction from “We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in IQ by 2020” on 2015-07-17
• InquilineKea changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-01” and changed their prediction from “We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the genetic variance in IQ by 2020” on 2015-07-17
• InquilineKea changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-02” and changed their prediction from “We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the genetic variance in adult IQ by 2020” on 2015-07-17
• InquilineKea changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-02” and changed their prediction from “We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020” on 2015-07-17
• InquilineKea said “Sure – how about SNPs then. I’m also interested in the de novo mutations and CNV, but it seems harder to attribute genetic variation due to them?” on 2015-07-17
• RoryS estimated 10% on 2015-07-18
• dndtdong estimated 0% on 2015-08-13