US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2015-07-17
• JoshuaZ said “Context https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/3dimhh/will_we_see_clinton_vs_trump_in_2016/ct607ve is prediction that makes this very close to 100%. ” on 2015-07-17
• David estimated 0% and said “Not really 0% but much lower than 1%.” on 2015-07-19
• silacoid estimated 0% and said “I’ll rather bet on becoming rich from having a diamond meteorite falling in through my chimney, even though I don’t even have a chimney…” on 2015-07-20
• Madplatypus estimated 0% on 2015-07-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2015-07-20
• jesselevine estimated 1% and said “My estimate, rounded up, is based on other top candidates either dying or gaffe-ing” on 2015-07-21
• InquilineKea estimated 0% on 2015-07-21
• _W_ estimated 0% and said “0.5% * 0.01% = 0.0000005%” on 2015-07-21
• btrettel estimated 0% on 2015-07-22
• solipsist estimated 0% on 2015-07-27
• EloiseRosen estimated 1% on 2015-07-27
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% and said “Very conjunctive.” on 2015-07-28
• davidmanheim estimated 0% and said “People be ruining their bayes scores, yo.” on 2015-07-30
• supinf estimated 1% on 2015-07-31
• daccount10 estimated 1% on 2015-08-02
• JoshuaZ said “$20 bet with Echo_Of_Savages https://voat.co/v/politics/comments/436453/1975054 – they assign this a very high probability. ” on 2015-08-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Also, updating. ” on 2015-08-22
• qznc estimated 1% on 2015-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2015-12-23
• ivendrov estimated 4% and said “40% Trump x 10% Sanders” on 2016-01-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 15% on 2016-01-07
• nshepperd estimated 2% and said “20% trump × 10% sanders” on 2016-01-07
• gwern estimated 3% and said “Trump is doing pretty well, but Sanders still seems like he’s running a doomed campaign, selling some half-baked stale socialism.” on 2016-01-07
• PseudonymousUser said “https://www.predictit.org/Contract/723/Will-Bernie-Sanders-win-the-2016-Democratic-presidential-nomination#data has Sanders at 20%” on 2016-01-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2016-01-07
• JoshuaZ said “(Note: Echo_Of_Savages has apparently deleted their Reddit account.) ” on 2016-01-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2016-01-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% and said “16% Trump x 4% Sanders = 0.64%” on 2016-01-10
• mortehu estimated 10% on 2016-01-11
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2016-01-11
• Houshalter estimated 20% on 2016-01-11
• lalaithion estimated 3% on 2016-01-21
• davidmanheim estimated 7% on 2016-01-28
• equivrel estimated 25% on 2016-02-14
• jesselevine estimated 40% and said “Well guys? ” on 2016-02-21
• PseudonymousUser said “I blame peer pressure for my 1%” on 2016-02-21
• artir estimated 1% on 2016-03-13
• Medea estimated 10% on 2016-03-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 33% on 2016-04-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 6% on 2016-04-21
• splorridge estimated 16% on 2016-04-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2016-04-21
• sdr estimated 1% on 2016-06-17
• two2thehead estimated 1% and said “It’s interesting to look back over the past 365 days. Sanders started out as a relatively minor candidate and now seems to have gotten national recognition/support as well as discussion of his ideas in the mainstream press.” on 2016-06-17
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-27.