There will be another major natural disaster before the years over

Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-06.

• tjross estimated 42% on 2010-03-23
• kassey estimated 90% on 2010-03-23
• MrHen estimated 70% on 2010-03-30
• Houshalter estimated 94% on 2010-06-13
• gwern estimated 30% and said “What’s ‘major’? ‘natural’ suggests that the BP spill doesn’t count, since so few humans died in it.” on 2010-07-29
• SilentWarrior estimated 70% on 2010-09-01
• kallman estimated 70% and said “Agree with Gwern – what’s major? http://globaldisasterwatch.blogspot.com/” on 2010-11-23
• gwern said “‘Munich Re, the world’s leading insurer, estimates the costs at $130 billion, up from $50 billion in 2009.’” on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/21666” on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “so I think I’ll mark it right. Haiti was a pretty major disaster, for example” on 2011-01-06
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-01-06.