USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012

Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• tjross estimated 3% on 2010-03-23
• Alyssa.P estimated 50% on 2010-03-23
• saralehman estimated 50% on 2010-04-01
• Houshalter estimated 50% on 2010-06-13
• gwern estimated 3% and said “those bases in Kuwait and elsewhere are pretty much permanent. and it takes a long time to wind down enormous bases like that even if we wanted to…” on 2010-07-29
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2010-12-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2011-05-24
• JoshuaZ said “Definitional question? It looks like a lot of contractors that are civillians but with massive weapons are staying around in Iraq. Do they count? ” on 2011-11-17
• Qiaochu estimated 0% on 2012-11-15
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_deployments#Africa_and_the_Middle_East marking wrong” on 2012-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.