there will be a vulcanic explosion in Japan!
- guru estimated 37% on 2010-04-05
- gwern estimated 60% and said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanoes_in_Japan eruptions nearly every year.” on 2010-07-29
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2010-08-09.
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2010-08-09.
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