Interest rates will be increased again in the next 4 months.

Created by Marz on 2010-04-13; known on 2010-08-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-13.

• Marz estimated 90% on 2010-04-13
• chrisknows estimated 95% on 2010-04-19
• chrisknows estimated 95% on 2010-04-19
• chrisknows estimated 95% on 2010-04-19
• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions#Historical_actions nothing since 2008” on 2010-08-13
• gwern said “http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/FEDFUNDS.txt last increase from 0.16 to 0.20 was 1 4 2010, or 4 months ago. only stasis or decrease since April” on 2010-08-13
• gwern said “Since neither metric gives an increase since April, I am marking this one wrong. If something else was meant, Marz, specify…” on 2010-08-13
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-08-13.