Boehner will accept the fiscal cliff deal offered by Obama this week

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-18; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-28.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-12-18
• RandomThinker said “http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/us/politics/president-delivers-a-new-offer-on-the-fiscal-crisis-to-boehner.html?hp” on 2012-12-18
• RandomThinker said “He may have minor quibbles, but I’m calling it accept if 400k becomes the line between bush era tax rates and clinton era tax rates.” on 2012-12-18
• gwern said “does Boehner accepting but the republicans revolting and causing the deal to fail count as acceptance?” on 2012-12-27
• RandomThinker said “Ah this didn’t happen. Still end of the year, although I’m not sure I’m confident enough to bet on it now!” on 2012-12-28
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-28.
• RandomThinker changed the deadline from “on 2012-12-14” on 2012-12-28
• RandomThinker said “I shouldn’t have added “this week” as a qualifier. It’s getting real close now. 400k is the threshold as I thought. http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/12/31/last_minute_deal_metaphysical_and_absurd.html” on 2013-01-01