Aronwall will publically state that he drops his belief in Christianity after discussing his belief on his blog with other rationalists before the end of 2013. (See

Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2014-01-03.

  • ChristianKl estimated 30% on 2012-12-21
  • gwern estimated 25% and said “why would anyone want to bother?on 2012-12-21
  • Michael Dickens estimated 25% on 2012-12-22
  • dhoe estimated 5% on 2012-12-25
  • ChristianKl   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-03.

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