The fed will increase the effective federal funds rate by the end of 2016 by at least .5%

Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-08-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• prophetofprofit estimated 60% on 2015-08-27
• prophetofprofit changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-31” and changed their prediction from “The fed will increase the interest rates by the end of 2016” on 2015-08-27
• prophetofprofit changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-31” and changed their prediction from “The fed will increase interest rates by the end of 2016” on 2015-08-27
• sflicht estimated 50% on 2015-08-27
• sflicht estimated 66% on 2015-08-27
• PseudonymousUser estimated 34% on 2015-08-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 80% and said “Oh, end of 2016. Right.” on 2015-08-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2015-08-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 66% on 2015-09-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2015-09-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2015-09-27
• gwern said “it was .25% if I’m understanding it right: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate” on 2017-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.