The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-12-23
• JoshuaZ said “See http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h ” on 2012-12-23
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 2% on 2012-12-27
• gwern estimated 7% and said “hm. that’s actually not that terrible an idea. I could see Eliezer going for that.” on 2012-12-27
• RobbBB estimated 4% and said “Very specific prediction — I’m assuming it can’t refer to both Voldemort and Death. Lots of moving parts. Still, not crazy given the story, and EY could be persuaded by reading about this theory.” on 2012-12-28
• Tuxedage estimated 3% on 2012-12-28
• ygert estimated 5% on 2012-12-28
• darkdaemon estimated 10% on 2012-12-31
• Random8042 estimated 78% and said “Well, if Harry dies, then Death will still exist, and Harry won’t. If Harry doesn’t die, then he must have discovered immortality, which he will give to everyone because he is Good. So then Harry will exist, but Death won’t.” on 2012-12-31
• DaFranker estimated 20% on 2013-01-04
• Benja estimated 3% on 2013-02-10
• nigr estimated 10% on 2013-08-15
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-02
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-10.