LSD microdosing experiment: pair 9: placebo then active?

Created by gwern on 2012-12-23; known on 2012-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-23.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-12-23
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-23.
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-12-23” and made the prediction on 2013-10-16