We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years.

Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23

• drethelin estimated 85% on 2012-12-23
• JoshuaZ said “Is this meant to include all such life or just intelligent life? What constitutes evidence? ” on 2012-12-23
• drethelin changed the deadline from “on 2012-12-23” on 2012-12-23
• drethelin said “Intelligent life, evidence such as radio/other signals of nonhuman intelligent origin and content. ” on 2012-12-23
• ChristianKl estimated 20% and said “Could you edited the word intelligent into the question?” on 2012-12-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “And second ChristianKI’s request. ” on 2012-12-27
• drethelin changed their prediction from “We will detect evidence of alien life within the next 50 years.” on 2012-12-27
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 2% on 2012-12-27
• gwern said “redundant with http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2803” on 2012-12-27
• Tuxedage estimated 65% on 2012-12-28
• Random8042 estimated 15% on 2012-12-29
• darkdaemon estimated 10% on 2012-12-31
• ewang estimated 4% on 2013-01-05
• NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2013-01-05
• Cy Fleming estimated 2% on 2013-01-15
• nshepperd estimated 0% on 2013-11-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 4% on 2016-10-10