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California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010.

Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.

  • dakyne estimated 70% on 2010-05-11
  • Houshalter estimated 1% and said “I seriously doubt it.” on 2010-06-13
  • JFE estimated 25% on 2010-07-02
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “As Adam Smith said, “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation.” California has many tricks left yet to play.” on 2010-07-29
  • dakyne   judged this prediction right on 2010-08-11.
  • dakyne said “http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/11/1770897/california-to-get-25-billion-from.html” on 2010-08-11
  • dakyne said “For those who want to dispute it’s a bailout: “bailing out bad management doesn’t improve it.”” on 2010-08-11
  • gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2010-08-12.
  • gwern said “And how is this different from the block grants and whatnot CA has gotten for decades? Usually bailout is something like assuming or guaranteeing debt…” on 2010-08-12
  • dakyne said “at gwern, like I said, read the article, and my comments—it is unquestionably a bail out. This is an unprecedented bailout to save jobs.” on 2010-08-23
  • gwern said “I did read it. Obviously. My comment stands – what is different from random block grants?” on 2010-08-23
  • dakyne said “What about "bailing out bad management doesn’t improve it.” don’t you understand? And that’s a quote from a liberal.” on 2010-09-19
  • dakyne   judged this prediction right on 2010-11-03.
  • dakyne said “More evidence California is continually received Federal bailouts: http://dollarcollapse.com/uncategorized/will-bailing-out-the-states-kill-the-dollar/” on 2010-11-03
  • gwern said “only emphasizes my point that state governments haven’t made the books balance sans Feds forever, and that it’s nonsense to speak of bailouts” on 2010-11-07
  • gwern said “analyst Chris Whalen CA will do a haircut and need a bailout not that it already has http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-truth-about-california-2010-11-22” on 2010-11-30
  • dakyne said “I guess you didn’t get the memo about the $19 billion deficit. That article was a crock—it mentioned nothing about the state budget deficit.” on 2010-12-10
  • dakyne said “gwern, POMO has been in place since 2009. California and other states have been getting bailouts for months.” on 2010-12-10
  • dakyne said “NPR: “California already has received just over $8 billion in federal stimulus dollars that helped the state close the budget deficit last year.”” on 2010-12-10
  • dakyne said “http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2010/01/california_seeking_federal_bailout_.html” on 2010-12-10
  • dakyne said “watch this 60 Minutes segment by CBS to its end regarding federal bailouts to states and municipalities. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7166293n” on 2010-12-23
  • gwern said “members of Congress fear that it is a matter of time before a state seeks a bailout, say bankruptcy lawyers who have been consulted by Congressional aides.” on 2011-01-22
  • gwern said “http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html” on 2011-01-22