The world will not end December 25, 2012.
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
- Houshalter estimated 75% on 2010-06-13
- maskath@hotmail.com judged this prediction right on 2010-06-19.
- maskath@hotmail.com judged this prediction unknown on 2010-06-19.
- maskath@hotmail.com estimated 90% on 2010-06-19
- ozymandias estimated 99% on 2010-06-20
- ic9nine judged this prediction right on 2010-06-21.
- Houshalter judged this prediction unknown on 2010-06-26.
- Jack estimated 99% on 2010-07-01
- zuzak estimated 100% on 2010-07-04
- gwern estimated 100% on 2010-07-29
- Pavitra estimated 100% on 2010-08-03
- kallman estimated 100% and said “Wasn’t it supposed to be the 21st anyhow? Only ends for people dead on that date.” on 2010-11-23
- anonym estimated 100% on 2010-11-27
- Nic_Smith estimated 100% on 2010-11-28
- gimpf estimated 100% on 2010-12-12
- NathanMcKnight estimated 99% on 2011-11-12
- JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2011-11-13
- Isaac estimated 100% on 2011-11-13
- Anubhav estimated 100% on 2011-11-13
- PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2011-11-13
- RobertLumley estimated 100% on 2011-11-14
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 100% on 2011-11-15
- fnedrik estimated 100% on 2011-11-17
- kilobug estimated 100% on 2011-11-18
- Tiresias estimated 100% on 2011-12-20
- lukeprog estimated 100% on 2012-09-04
- sdr estimated 100% on 2012-09-13
- Qiaochu estimated 100% on 2012-11-09
- alecbrooks estimated 100% on 2012-11-09
- Ken estimated 100% on 2012-11-12
- Pablo estimated 100% and said “Great filter question. Any answer other than “100” automatically disqualifies someone as a reliable predictor.” on 2012-11-24
- ygert estimated 100% on 2012-12-23
- Qiaochu judged this prediction right on 2012-12-26.