I predict Stanley McChrystal will keep his job until at least July 22.

Created by vhistory on 2010-06-22; known on 2010-07-22; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• vhistory estimated 75% on 2010-06-22
• gwern estimated 60% and said “Retirement ceremony was 23 July: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_McChrystal#Retirement But was removed from position earlier. Tentatively marking right.” on 2010-07-29
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-07-29.