Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you)

Created by JFE on 2010-07-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JFE on 2011-01-06.

• JFE estimated 25% on 2010-07-02
• zuzak estimated 50% on 2010-07-04
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-07-07
• Larks estimated 51% on 2010-07-22
• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-07-29
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% and said “I solved the puzzle!” on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• Jack estimated 50% on 2010-10-10
• JFE   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-01-06.