PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01

  • gwern estimated 55% on 2012-12-31
  • Tuxedage estimated 70% on 2012-12-31
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2026-01-01on 2012-12-31
  • smijer estimated 92% on 2012-12-31
  • Qiaochu estimated 95% on 2013-01-01
  • HonoreDB estimated 55% on 2013-01-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2013-01-05
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 70% on 2013-01-08
  • themusicgod1 estimated 89% on 2016-10-10
  • pranomostro estimated 90% on 2018-12-08
  • Baeboo estimated 89% on 2018-12-12
  • amadeu estimated 77% on 2019-04-07
  • Baeboo estimated 91% on 2020-11-20
  • n99 estimated 96% on 2022-10-28