No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-12-31
• gwern on 2012-12-31
• Tuxedage estimated 45% on 2012-12-31
• smijer estimated 90% on 2012-12-31
• Qiaochu estimated 90% and said “I’m curious how other people are generating their numbers. I considered using a Poisson distribution but now I’m just trying to vaguely guess the timing of a cultural shift important enough that it needs to be Constitutionalized. ” on 2013-01-01
• HonoreDB estimated 40% on 2013-01-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2013-01-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2013-01-08
• Jayson Virissimo said “Amendments aren’t necessary when the executive can do pretty much any damn thing he pleases anyway.” on 2013-01-08
• Yvain estimated 33% and said “12 amendments in the 20th century suggest we shouldn’t be too confident in no new ones in 20 years even if we can’t think of a good reason to make one.” on 2013-02-13
• themusicgod1 estimated 86% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 85% on 2018-09-19
• Baeboo estimated 80% on 2018-12-12
• amadeu estimated 40% on 2019-04-07
• n99 estimated 91% on 2022-10-28