Bashar al-Assad will still be holding power in Syria on December 31, 2013.

Created by ygert on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

• ygert estimated 20% on 2013-01-01
• smijer estimated 15% on 2013-01-01
• simplicio estimated 20% on 2013-01-03
• Tuxedage estimated 30% on 2013-01-03
• Qiaochu estimated 25% on 2013-01-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2013-01-05
• ChristianKl estimated 35% on 2013-01-07
• DrDiaphanous estimated 25% on 2013-01-08
• najdorf estimated 60% on 2013-02-06
• Yvain estimated 20% on 2013-02-13
• RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2013-02-13
• ossicones estimated 60% on 2013-09-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 96% on 2013-11-16
• gwern said “hard to judge. he only controls part of the country” on 2013-11-16
• JoshuaZ said “Controls more than half and most major population centers. Will people object to me marking this right? ” on 2013-12-31
• Jayson Virissimo said “Sounds right to me.” on 2013-12-31
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2013-12-31.