By 2029 no computer – or “machine intelligence” – will have passed the Turing Test.

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2029-01-01

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/1” on 2010-07-29
• Grognor estimated 45% on 2011-12-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-06
• pranomostro estimated 50% on 2019-01-15
• Baeboo estimated 60% on 2019-01-16
• Baeboo estimated 15% on 2019-02-15
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% and said “That’s right. ” on 2019-04-26
• Baeboo estimated 80% on 2020-05-06
• mmmkkaaayy estimated 30% on 2020-05-08
• Baeboo estimated 76% on 2020-05-27
• wizzwizz4 said “What counts as “passing the Turing test”? Many bots have passed at least one public Turing test competition.” on 2020-05-27
• Baeboo estimated 71% on 2020-05-29
• Baeboo estimated 66% on 2020-05-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 35% on 2020-06-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2020-06-01
• Baeboo estimated 75% on 2020-11-20