“By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as “the world leader in software development” or words to that effect.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/5” on 2010-07-29
• Larks estimated 5% on 2011-01-01
• Grognor estimated 3% on 2011-12-06
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.
• gwern said “LN has finally officially judged this wrong: http://blog.longnow.org/02013/02/07/russian-software-industry-fails-to-take-global-lead-long-bet-5/” on 2013-02-07