“At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/11” on 2010-07-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% and said “Obvious candidates are people between 1900 and 2000. That’s a lot of people. And medicine is improving. Only need one. ” on 2011-05-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% and said “I meant “obvious candidates are people born between 1990 and 2000”. ” on 2011-05-26
• Anubhav estimated 60% on 2011-10-10
• Anubhav estimated 90% and said “Reevaluated probability of apocalypse.” on 2011-10-10
• faws estimated 47% and said “The adverb “still” seems to exclude cryonics.” on 2011-11-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 80% and said “Less optimistic. Longevity techs seems to be running into a lot of problems. ” on 2012-05-27
• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2012-05-27
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2012-05-28
• Pablo estimated 50% and said “Steve Austad made a very similar prediction: http://classic.the-scientist.com/?articles.view” on 2012-10-01
• Malgidus estimated 90% and said “Excluding cryonics. Excluding definitions of “human”. Taking 10% off for existential risk.” on 2013-03-27
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-01-15
• Baeboo estimated 55% on 2019-01-16
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26