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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain.

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.

  • Tuxedage estimated 4% on 2013-01-02
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “I’m sane, I tell you! it’s all a crazy coincidence.” on 2013-01-02
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2013-01-02
  • muflax estimated 0% on 2013-01-03
  • gimpf estimated 0% on 2013-01-04
  • Sarokrae estimated 0% on 2013-01-04
  • ewang estimated 0% on 2013-01-05
  • alecbrooks estimated 0% on 2013-01-05
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% and said “Will this be judged using DSM-IV or DSM-V?” on 2013-01-06
  • gwern said “let’s be generous and go with either” on 2013-01-06
  • ChristianKl estimated 0% on 2013-01-07
  • DaFranker estimated 1% and said “Shit happens =P” on 2013-01-07
  • alanog estimated 0% on 2013-01-08
  • Danny_Hintze estimated 0% on 2013-01-08
  • Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2013-01-11
  • roxton estimated 0% on 2013-01-11
  • gwern said “1% is way too high. look up the base rate of split-personality and then consider all the LWers an alter could be and whether they would even be a LWer…” on 2013-01-11
  • Grognor estimated 0% and said “joke predictions are lame” on 2013-01-12
  • Tuxedage said “Then why vote? :p” on 2013-01-12
  • Leo estimated 0% and said “That’s not even how plurality works. They have different legal names, previous addresses (gwern’s move’s unproven), school records, abilities, looks (if gwern’s picture’s not fake), relatives.” on 2013-01-13
  • Yvain estimated 0% and said “I’m sane, I tell you! it’s all a crazy coincidence.” on 2013-01-13
  • Qiaochu estimated 0% and said “Gwern’s split personality is obviously Quirinus_Quirrell. ” on 2013-01-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2013-01-14
  • Vulture estimated 0% on 2014-01-20
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2014-06-29
  • DaFranker estimated 0% and said “Yvain’s comment made my day! But gwern’s right, 1% is way too high.” on 2015-07-23
  • themusicgod1 estimated 4% on 2016-04-14
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 2% on 2016-07-09
  • pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-09-02
  • pranomostro said “I love fan-fiction of rationalist bloggers. Can we make John Nerst the arch-enemy of Luke Muehlhauser?” on 2018-09-02
  • Baeboo estimated 0% on 2018-12-12
  • AlexLamson estimated 0% on 2019-04-16
  • muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.