“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/12” on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “I’m pretty confident in this one. Too many participants, too few experimental results, and Nobels have long had a leadtime measured in decades.” on 2010-07-29
• Grognor estimated 85% on 2011-12-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 64% on 2016-10-06
• unexpectedEOF estimated 70% on 2018-06-01
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-01-15
• Baeboo estimated 85% on 2019-01-16
• 6thNapoleon estimated 95% on 2019-01-30
• deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26
• Pablo estimated 100% on 2019-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.