PredictionBook transitioning to read-only mode at the end of 2023 ( read more ).

In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists.

Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

  • ygert estimated 70% on 2013-01-02
  • Tuxedage estimated 10% on 2013-01-02
  • Tuxedage said “Considering that Eliezer is a firm atheist, and also against any ontologically basic entities, I’m reasonably convinced he’s not going to include souls, which I define as ontologically basic mental entities.on 2013-01-02
  • gwern estimated 25% and said “it could happen; think of simulations. and it offers greater scope for complexity and munchkining and being rational even if materialism is false, etc. I expect some big revelation about the world by the end, and this would fiton 2013-01-03
  • simplicio estimated 30% on 2013-01-03
  • Sarokrae estimated 70% and said “afaik Eliezer has as good as said it’s canon; my reading is that Harry doesn’t have any evidence /yet/ but eventually will do.on 2013-01-04
  • stephenh estimated 20% on 2013-02-26
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% and said “Tuxedage, ontologically basic mental entities are not necessary for an ‘afterlife.’on 2013-02-27
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2013-02-27
  • HonoreDB said “Does it count if Harry creates an afterlife?on 2013-02-27
  • ygert said “Yes, it counts.on 2013-02-28
  • HonoreDB estimated 35% on 2013-03-01
  • ChristianKl estimated 30% and said “Aren’t the ghosts already basic mental entities even if they aren’t self aware?on 2013-03-24
  • jtc510 estimated 0% and said “EY is extremely atheist. There is no real science to show an afterlife, and strong evidence AGAINST souls. It’s not gonna happen.on 2013-06-27
  • Benja estimated 30% and said “jtc510, Eliezer doesn’t believe that there’s causality-violating time travel and people who can violate conservation of energy by waving a wand. rolls eyes — Given that creating an afterlife counts, this isn’t so unlikely.on 2013-06-28
  • Benja estimated 65% and said “Recent events (Ch.89) aren’t inconsistent with “no souls or afterlife”, but are way more likely to appear in the story if there is one.on 2013-06-30
  • Benja estimated 52% and said “Though perhaps more like “twice as likely” than “3.4 times as likely”, which means that update was too large. (argh)on 2013-06-30
  • nigr estimated 0% and said “noon 2013-08-15
  • jbluphin estimated 30% on 2014-02-01
  • player_03 estimated 35% on 2014-04-26
  • HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-14.
  • player_03 said “I disagree with this judgement. The term ‘soul’ was used frankly and repeatedly during the final arc, and Riddle confirmed in Parseltongue that he was really a ‘spirit’ possessing Quirrell.on 2015-03-16
  • player_03 said “And then Harry went on to make a number of plans based on taking Quirrell at his word, so it looks like he accepted the existence of at least one spirit/soul.on 2015-03-16
  • player_03 said “Yes, Quirrell/Riddle was a special case: he only had that ‘free-floating spirit’ thing thanks to careful preparation. However, we already established that a manufactured afterlife would count. Why not a manufactured soul?on 2015-03-16

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction