“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01

• gwern estimated 7% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/120” on 2010-07-29
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-07-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-07-21
• lavalamp estimated 2% and said “Would be lower, but gwern says 7%, so…” on 2013-08-24
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2013-08-24
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-01-15
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2019-01-16
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26