“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2015-05-28.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/126” on 2010-07-29
• kallman estimated 80% and said “Check hans rosling. General trend for quality of life to improve everywhere on average.” on 2010-11-23
• hedges estimated 30% on 2013-03-22
• ShIxtan estimated 80% on 2013-04-30
• Tuxedage estimated 80% on 2013-05-02
• gwern said “LB hasn’t updated it even though it’s clearly expired… I guess I will bump a year.” on 2013-06-30
• gwern said “kallman: of course there is progress, but this is a five-fold conjunction, and at least one of them, energy, can be extremely volatile” on 2013-06-30
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2013-06-25” on 2013-06-30
• gwern said “still no judgment from LB. I’ve left a comment there asking” on 2014-06-30
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2014-06-30” on 2014-06-30
• gwern said “LB has awarded it to Burns, the proposer, so marking this right.” on 2015-05-28
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2015-05-28.