“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/197” on 2010-07-29
• kallman estimated 20% and said “Population is still growing, people have places to be :P” on 2010-11-23
• gimpf estimated 30% on 2010-12-13
• gwern said “last available year is 2008 from BTS. wheels grind slowly. I’m going to push this back a year; hopefully the stats will be out then.” on 2011-01-31
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2011-01-31” on 2011-01-31
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 60% on 2011-09-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-09-04
• Grognor estimated 38% on 2011-12-06
• gwern said “closing as right per Michael Bomford’s comment there” on 2012-02-05
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-02-05.
• gwern said “officially judged right: http://blog.longnow.org/02013/02/07/first-5-year-decline-in-us-vehicle-miles-traveled-since-wwii-long-bet-197/” on 2013-02-07