“Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/291” on 2010-07-29
• Grognor estimated 0% on 2011-12-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-08-17
• Filipe estimated 1% on 2012-09-08
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-08.
• gwern said “officially judged wrong http://blog.longnow.org/02013/02/07/us-presidential-election-process-largely-unchanged-in-02012-long-bet-291/” on 2013-02-07