“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-01-31; judged right by amadeu on 2019-04-30.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/362” on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “Update: Buffet/SP is winning 2/3 years. http://blog.longnow.org/2011/04/27/the-warren-buffett-hedge-fund-bet-tightens/” on 2011-04-27
• Ken estimated 55% on 2011-09-10
• aseyfarth estimated 90% and said “Looks good so far, as far as I can see (http://fortune.com/2015/02/03/berkshires-buffett-adds-to-his-lead-in-1-million-bet-with-hedge-fund/)), and the general prediction is Trump is good for S&P in the short term. Would take a wild change.” on 2017-01-30
• gwern said “whups, I think the due date is wrong on this one. Obviously it’s not 31 December 2017 yet!” on 2017-02-02
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-31” on 2017-02-02
• Alti Camelus estimated 67% and said “I think there is a widespread feeling that we are in for a bumpy ride this year, and hedge funds are better at handling unmodelled risk than straight equity.” on 2017-03-12
• amadeu   judged this prediction right on 2019-04-30.