“The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-12-07

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-07-29
• gwern estimated 0% on 2010-07-29
• gwern estimated 5% and said “oops. http://www.longbets.org/395” on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “Anyway. space probes require many years of R&D, and there are no plausible propulsion methods. So it may happen one day, but not by 2025.” on 2010-07-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-05-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% and said “First projected launch would be 2036” on 2016-10-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2016-10-07
• Athrithalix estimated 3% on 2018-02-22
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-15
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2019-01-16