“By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/9” on 2010-07-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 4% on 2016-10-06
• Athrithalix estimated 2% on 2018-02-22
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-15
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-15
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2019-01-16
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2019-04-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.