“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01

  • gwern estimated 90% on 2010-07-30
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/16on 2010-07-30
  • gwern said “I think I could hack this up with existing technology. Another 10 years, with falling Flash technology and expanding smartphone usage? inevitableon 2010-07-30
  • gwern estimated 96% and said “Actually, I think I’d better increase my confidence.on 2010-07-30
  • Grognor estimated 78% on 2011-12-06
  • lavalamp estimated 95% on 2013-02-02
  • drethelin estimated 85% and said “I think it’s basically guaranteed this will be possible by then but plenty of market niches don’t necessarily get built.on 2013-02-02
  • HonoreDB estimated 98% on 2013-02-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 88% on 2013-02-05
  • Tuxedage estimated 90% on 2013-02-06
  • themusicgod1 said “memory by you or the NSA?on 2016-10-06
  • pranomostro estimated 70% and said “I don’t know if such a device is available at the moment. A quick internet search reveals nothing of the sort.on 2019-01-14
  • pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-01-14
  • HonoreDB said “I’m going to tentatively assert that Apple Watch counts as this because of apps like otter.ai on 2019-05-21
  • gwern said “Hm.. what do people think? Smartphones and NN TTS certainly are capable of this if appropriately programmed, but do they actually exist as usable consumer products now?on 2020-01-01
  • Bruno Parga said “I think “one could hack it” is not quite the same as “available”, so I think this is wrong. Also, the main obstacle is probably not even the technology, but privacy concerns.on 2020-01-01

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction