When he wrote The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver was aware of Overcoming Bias but was not aware of Less Wrong.

Created by HonoreDB on 2013-01-07; known on 2014-01-14

• HonoreDB estimated 66% on 2013-01-07
• simplicio estimated 40% and said “There is a passage in the book that actually uses the words “less wrong.” I suspect that that might mean Silver has encountered the website.” on 2013-01-07
• gwern said “wasn’t that a chapter title? in any case, how could one know such a thing as this?” on 2013-01-07
• HonoreDB said “I’m hoping he’ll answer the question in the AMA tomorrow, since lukeprog brought it up. I’ve been wondering since I read the book.” on 2013-01-07
• HonoreDB said “On the whole, I think his using the chapter title Less and less and less wrong is actually evidence against his knowing about the site—if he’d meant to reference it, he’d have done so explicitly.” on 2013-01-07
• HonoreDB said “If we don’t find out I’ll defer or withdraw the prediction.” on 2013-01-07
• Peter Hurford estimated 40% on 2013-01-08
• Tuxedage estimated 35% on 2013-01-13
• HonoreDB changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-14” on 2013-01-14