“By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/44” on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “Fence-sitting because terms too vague.” on 2010-07-30
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-01-14
• Bruno Parga said “Basically the original bettor doesn’t believe in evolution.” on 2019-12-30
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.