“By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 50% on 2010-07-30
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/44on 2010-07-30
  • gwern said “Fence-sitting because terms too vague.on 2010-07-30
  • pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-01-14
  • Bruno Parga said “Basically the original bettor doesn’t believe in evolution.on 2019-12-30
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.

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