By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin.
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
- Peter Hurford estimated 99% on 2013-01-08
- simplicio estimated 85% on 2013-01-08
- HonoreDB said “Trillion dollar specifically, or any ridiculous denomination?” on 2013-01-09
- RandomThinker estimated 75% on 2013-01-09
- Peter Hurford said “I’ll revise it to any denomination greater than $100,000.” on 2013-01-09
- dhoe estimated 95% on 2013-01-09
- Qiaochu estimated 80% on 2013-01-10
- DrDiaphanous estimated 98% on 2013-01-10
- HonoreDB estimated 90% on 2013-01-10
- RobertLumley estimated 95% on 2013-01-10
- roxton estimated 94% on 2013-01-11
- Tuxedage estimated 98% on 2013-01-12
- Tuxedage said “I find any estimate lower than 90%~ to be somewhat strange. It’s incredibly unlikely that the Government will do such a thing, regardless of whether it’s economically feasible, due to the strong voter pressure against this idea.” on 2013-01-12
- alecbrooks estimated 90% and said “President Obama is against it: http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/White-House-nixes-idea-for-trillion-dollar-coin-4189258.php.” on 2013-01-13
- PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2013-01-13
- RandomThinker said “@tuxedage. dems will support Obama if he chooses to do this. He won’t, but I wouldn’t say it’s impossible.” on 2013-01-13
- Nic_Smith estimated 98% on 2013-01-14
- JoshuaZ estimated 99% on 2013-01-14
- ChristianKl estimated 90% on 2013-01-15
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% on 2013-01-16
- Doug Feigelson estimated 95% on 2013-01-16
- Michael Dickens estimated 96% on 2013-01-21
- Quill_McGee estimated 97% on 2013-01-22
- Emanuel Rylke estimated 99% on 2013-01-22
- Benja estimated 95% on 2013-01-30
- najdorf estimated 99% on 2013-02-06
- DrDiaphanous estimated 95% on 2013-05-18
- PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2013-10-31
- gwern estimated 99% on 2013-11-01
- PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2013-11-06
- mortehu estimated 99% on 2013-11-16
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction right on 2014-01-01.