“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/76” on 2010-07-30
• Gedusa estimated 75% and said “http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/03/16/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells/” on 2011-11-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2011-11-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-11-09
• Anubhav estimated 70% on 2011-11-12
• Anubhav estimated 80% and said “Revised upward after reading the Scientific American article. ” on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight estimated 75% on 2011-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% and said “Updating. ” on 2012-09-10
• Athrithalix estimated 85% on 2018-02-22
• pranomostro estimated 80% and said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#Current_global_studies” on 2019-01-14
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.
• JoshuaZ said “Seems to be true in most markets, marking as correct. Any objections?” on 2020-01-01