“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/86” on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “I’m not terribly confident that the USA or Western Europe will even have compulsory schooling in 2150.” on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1458” on 2010-07-30
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “The real question is if old people will be buying robot insurance from Old Glory. ” on 2011-11-17
• faws estimated 3% and said “Not that they would help, but I could see politicians who feel pressured to be seen doing something against a perceived looming unfriendly AI threat mandating something like that. ” on 2011-11-18
• Anubhav said “^ Almost definitely falling prey to narrative plausibility bias. ” on 2011-11-18
• gwern estimated 5% and said “parsing it a little more and thinking about the conjunctions involved” on 2011-11-18
• Tiresias estimated 0% on 2011-12-20
• WilliamKiely estimated 0% on 2016-06-29
• themusicgod1 estimated 43% and said “what’s a school?” on 2016-10-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-14
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-11-20