Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

• DrDiaphanous estimated 2% on 2013-01-10
• Peter Hurford estimated 0% on 2013-01-10
• saturn estimated 1% on 2013-01-10
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2013-01-11
• kiba estimated 0% on 2013-01-11
• dhoe estimated 1% on 2013-01-16
• Cy Fleming estimated 1% on 2013-01-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 7% and said “Base rate is 4/43 which is around 9%, but security is better now. ” on 2013-01-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Wait, oops. That’s for whole term in office, not for single year, so substantially smaller. ” on 2013-01-16
• Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2013-01-17
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2013-01-21
• Michael Dickens estimated 2% on 2013-01-21
• ChristianKl estimated 1% on 2013-01-24
• Slahzer estimated 2% on 2013-01-30
• gwern estimated 0% and said “4 over the last century+ is less than 1% annually, security has improved since, and as a second-term president there’s now less incentive to kill him plus the tea partiers seem to’ve quieted down.” on 2013-01-31
• najdorf estimated 1% on 2013-02-06
• alecbrooks estimated 1% on 2013-02-07
• Yvain estimated 2% on 2013-02-13
• Tuxedage estimated 0% on 2013-02-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2013-02-26
• simplicio estimated 0% on 2013-02-26
• phreeza estimated 0% on 2013-03-21
• hedges estimated 1% on 2013-03-22
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2013-08-09
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.