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Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide.

Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

  • ygert estimated 15% on 2013-01-13
  • ygert estimated 8% and said “Actually, this need two things: not only that it was not suicide, but also that it is discovered. So, I am adjusting my estimate.on 2013-01-13
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2013-01-13
  • army1987 said ““found” is very vague — has Kurt Cobain been “found” to not commit suicide?on 2013-01-13
  • ygert changed their prediction from “Before 2015, it will be found that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide.” on 2013-01-13
  • Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2013-01-13
  • Peter Hurford estimated 0% on 2013-01-13
  • Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2013-01-14
  • Cy Fleming estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
  • simplicio estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
  • ChristianKl estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2013-01-16
  • saturn estimated 2% on 2013-01-16
  • dhoe estimated 5% on 2013-01-16
  • ewang estimated 0% on 2013-01-19
  • Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2013-01-21
  • ygert estimated 5% on 2013-01-23
  • drethelin estimated 1% and said “Considering the power of the entities he was against and that they were already prepared to destroy his life with the means they already had, I don’t see why they would have him killed. He also had a history of depression.on 2013-01-25
  • adam_strandberg estimated 1% on 2013-02-09
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2014-06-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2015-06-05
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.