By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known in 7 days

  • Tuxedage estimated 9% on 2013-01-13
  • Tuxedage said “By “given up” I mean personally, rather than declare friendly AI impossible.on 2013-01-13
  • Nic_Smith said “How to be judged if he builds a [F?]AI before 2020? Also, “known by” date looks off.on 2013-01-14
  • Tuxedage said “Nic: If he builds FAI before 2020 (however unlikely that is), then this prediction will be wrong, as he’s succeeded in building it. on 2013-01-14
  • Tuxedage changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01on 2013-01-14
  • Nic_Smith estimated 5% on 2013-01-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2013-01-14
  • Qiaochu estimated 5% on 2013-01-14
  • Cy Fleming estimated 5% on 2013-01-15
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 2% on 2013-01-22
  • ChristianKl estimated 15% on 2013-01-24
  • gwern said “many ways to give up without appearing to give upon 2013-01-26
  • Slahzer estimated 10% on 2013-01-26
  • adam_strandberg estimated 1% on 2013-02-09
  • John Maxwell IV estimated 3% on 2013-02-10
  • tormey estimated 5% on 2013-02-10
  • Yvain estimated 7% on 2013-02-13
  • halfwit estimated 1% on 2013-06-14
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 6% on 2013-08-09
  • Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2014-01-01
  • itaibn estimated 10% on 2014-01-02
  • itaibn estimated 10% on 2014-01-02
  • simplicio estimated 10% on 2014-01-02
  • holycow81 estimated 14% on 2014-12-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 11% on 2016-04-14
  • olgaidzh estimated 2% on 2017-02-19
  • pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-09-02
  • Baeboo estimated 2% on 2018-12-12
  • Baeboo estimated 1% 4 days ago

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