“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/127” on 2010-07-30
• dakyne estimated 1% and said “No way—AAPL is already larger, and XOM will remain bigger.” on 2010-07-30
• sucrenoir   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-04.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-04.
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-11-04
• PseudonymousUser said “AAPL 647.36B, MSFT 382.88B” on 2015-01-01
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.